AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, September 13, 2021
Last week’s updated balance sheets are likely to again be a factor in this week’s trade. One of the most notable changes was to the stocks to use that increased on both corn and soybeans. Corn is now at 9.5% for the 2021/22 marketing year and soybeans are at 4.2%. While these both still require rationing, it is less of a concern that it was in recent months. This week brings a shift in global weather interest. Farmers in some Brazilian states can now advance their soybean planting and more will be able to this week. The Brazilian government has established a time frame where land must remain idle to help control rust fungus. Today marks the start of the planting window, and this makes weather more of a factor in Brazil. Rains have moved through several regions of Brazil and given soils enough moisture to allow the start of soybean planting. Last year Brazilian farmers waited for rain and this pushed back their entire production season. Farmers are more eager to get planting started this year as they can still receive record values for new crop soybeans. Given the earlier start date, the United States may see new crop competition from Brazil as soon as January, narrowing the opportunity for US sales.  

* More Gulf terminals to open this week
* River basis starting to firm
* Some terminals will be down for another month
* Freight costs remain high
* Demand focus is on China
* Ukraine to build new export terminals
* Soybean planting to advance in Brazil
* Brazil may remain dry all year
* World food costs continue to rise
* Trade now focused on Sep 30th stocks numbers

* US yield est 176.3 bpa, crop size at 15 bbu
* 2020/21 ending stocks 1.19 bbu
* US 21/22 carryout 1.4 bbu
* World ending stocks  197.6 mmt
* Average cash value $5.45, -30 cents
* US yield est 50.6 bpa, crop at 4.37 bbu
* 2020/21 ending stocks at 175 mbu
* US 21/22 carryout est 185 mbu
* World stocks 98.9 mmt   
* Average cash value $12.90, -80 cents

* US production left at 1.7 bbu
* US 21/22 carryout 615 mbu
* World carryout 283.2 mmt
* Average cash value $6.60, -10 cents
* Rains to benefit winter wheat seeding
* 2021 beef production est 27.74 billion pounds
* 2022 beef production est 26.88 billion pounds
* 2021 pork production est 27.74 billion pounds
* 2022 pork production est 28.15 billion pounds
* Steer value est $128.25 cwt, hog value $56.25

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.