AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, September 14, 2021
The rating of the US corn and soybean crops was little changed last week. The corn rating was down 1 point on the week while the soybean rating was unchanged. We are seeing crops mature at an elevated rate though, which is going to limit the possibility of weather-related losses prior to harvest concluding. The weekly crop rating is not much of a factor in price discovery anymore. We are now seeing harvest take place and that is where traders will focus their attention on a daily basis. Given the wide range of crop reports trade has received all growing season, harvest reports are expected to be just as diverse. The question remains if good regions will be large enough to compensate for losses in others. Crop quality is also quickly becoming a market factor. Some regions of the United States claim their test weight on corn will be down given the dry finish to the growing season. While this is going to happen, others claim late rains added test weight, and bushels as well. Rains were likely more of a benefit for the soybean crop given the progress of the corn crop. These factors may only add to the volatility we have seen in futures trading.  

* Global economic concerns remain worrisome
* Rains move through Brazil
* Most of Brazil still below normal precip
* Gulf terminals starting to resume operations
* No major export losses reported
* Importers focused on PNW offers
* US ethanol margins are favorable
* Heavy use of storage expected this fall
* Global basis favors US for needs
* Tropical Storm Nicholas makes landfall in Texas 

* Corn now rated 58% G/E
* Harvest is 4% complete, normal is 5%
* Technicals apply pressure
* Buyers again pass on high priced corn
* US ethanol stocks continue to decline
* Soybean crop rating is 57% G/E
* Leaves have dropped on 38% of crop
* Brazil selling soybeans for fall shipment
* Chinese demand underestimated   
* US values under global market

* Winter wheat is 12% planted, average is 8%
* Russian taxes limit their exports
* Global wheat supply to build
* Only 30% of France wheat is milling quality
* Test weight a concern on EU wheat
* High food costs a concern
* Consumers balk at meat costs
* Cash trade remains thin
* US projected beef exports 140% of last year
* US beef exports top last year for 10 months

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.