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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Thursday, September 16, 2021
Much of the attention on market balance sheets is focused on the domestic numbers, but the global numbers are just as much of a factor in price discovery. Global corn production in the 2021/22 production season is forecast to increase 80.7 million metric tons from the 2020/21 year. Even with this large increase, global corn reserves at the end of the year are only expected to increase 11.1 million metric tons. This depends heavily upon large crops in the United States and Brazil, which we are already starting to see doubt on. The same scenario is taking place in the global soy complex. World soybean production is forecast to increase 21.1 million metric tons this year but ending stocks are only anticipated to increase by 3.8 million metric tons. This again is heavily dependent upon the Brazilian crop which is expected to increase 7 to 8 million metric tons this coming year. In the wheat complex world production is expected to be 4.5 million metric tons higher this coming year, but even so the global ending stocks are forecast to decrease a large 9.3 million metric tons as wheat demand is rising at a rapid rate. These tight global stocks to use numbers are providing the market with underlying support. 

Highlights
* Repairs continue at Gulf
* Large percentage of capacity still down
* US has 125 container vessels to unload
* Vessel delays cause supply issues
* Inflation remains a market concern
* Market focus shifting to demand
* Analysts doubt USDA yield estimates
* US topsoil starting to dry out
* World food values to keep rising
* Damage reports from Nicholas are minimal 

Corn
* Dec oats at a premium to Dec corn
* Quick maturity may impact quality
* Greatest concern is on test weight
* Reports of tar spot being monitored
* Argentina raises production estimates
 
Soybeans
* August rains seen as beneficial
* Trade expects more cancellations
* Canadian yields down 11.7% from 2020
* NOPA crush above est at 158.8 mbu   
* Argentina 21/22 plantings a 15-year low

Wheat
* US wheat stocks tighten 
* US stocks to use still 30% 
* China to relax import standards
* EU to limit exports
* Russian wheat values up 9 straight weeks
 
Livestock
* Boxed beef continues to weaken
* YTD cattle slaughter 23.04 million head
* Cattle slaughter +3.8% on the year 
* Hog slaughter at 88.2 million head
* Hog slaughter -1.6 million from year ago

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