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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Friday, September 17, 2021
The United States is predicting a large decline in corn and soybean exports this marketing year from last. Corn exports are forecast to decline by 270 million bu and soybean exports are expected to decrease by 170 million bu. The initial reaction to this is that demand will be down, but that may not be the case. For corn the USDA has bumped up its forecast for domestic use by 130 million for the 2021/22 marketing year with the bulk of this being in ethanol manufacturing. Domestic use of soybeans is expected to rise by 54 million bu, mainly from a rebound in crush. Even on wheat the USDA is predicting a 117 million bu decline in exports but a 67 million bu elevation in domestic use. These changes make it more likely the United States will be able to export finished products than whole grains. The two uses that will get the most attention are livestock and ethanol manufacturing as it is thought the US will see higher demand on both. Long term this may actually be more beneficial to the agricultural industry as it will all processors to capture processing margins and for exporters to generate revenue as well.   

Highlights
* Interior basis remains erratic
* Light farmer sales benefit values
* Gulf basis steady
* Gulf terminals not yet to full capacity
* May take longer than expected for gulf repairs
* Global basis firming, favors US 
* Argentine farmers ask for tax revisions
* Current export taxes are 31% on soy, 12% on corn
* Ukraine planting is progressing
* Chinese demand not as great as hoped 

Corn
* National basis -4 cents this week
* Brazil corn $1.00/bu above US
* Export demand is soft 
* Argentine crop 2.3% planted, -4% last year
* China continues to auction imported GMO corn
 
Soybeans
* National basis -2 cents this week
* ECB basis weaker than WCB
* Argentina lowers crop estimate 3 mmt
* Palm Oil supports soy complex
* Initial harvest reports next Monday   

Wheat
* Australia turning dry 
* Rains favors US winter crop plantings 
* Quick harvest may elevate double cropping
* EU wheat production short of demand
* Global exporters slow to make sales
 
Livestock
* Contracts find technical support
* Weekly hog slaughter pace highest in 6 months
* US pork supply outpacing demand 
* Weekly beef sales +23% at 15,300 mt
* Pork sales -25% last week at 25,300 mt

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