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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, October 05, 2021
Now that harvest is advancing, we are starting to see more interest on what is being done with newly harvested bushels. For the most part farmers across the United States have been selling soybeans to generate cash flow and storing soybeans. This shows farmers have more optimism on the ability of corn to rally from this point forward. This is likely to support interior basis values as buyers were hoping for new crop inventory to replenish reserves. This is especially the case at ethanol manufactures who have processed mush of their existing inventory. The United States has several corn sales for export on the books that need to be satisfied as well. This is preventing a seasonal decline from happening in corn basis that normally accompanies harvest. Soybean basis is softer, but not as much as one would expect as trade fears once pre-sold obligations are met, we will see deliveries halt there as well. Trade is also starting to place more attention on the South American planting pace now that that activity is underway. The winter corn crop is reported as 25% seeded and soybeans are about 3% planted in Brazil. Corn planting is also progressing in Argentina with 12% of the crop in. This will place more emphasis on South American weather.  

Highlights
* US dollar reaches highest level in 2 years
* US crude oil stocks -15% from last year
* Crude production is building
* Ethanol margins benefit from energy rally
* Cotton futures a 10-year high
* Cotton may take southern US corn acres 
* Rising food costs a global concern
* Inflation a major market concern 
* China to leave 2022 import quotas unchanged
* Global hand to mouth buyers suffering shortages 

Corn
* 29% harvested, 22% average
* 88% mature
* Moisture levels quickly dropping 
* Corn stocks tighter in WCB than ECB 
* Farm sales are increasing
 
Soybeans
* 34% harvested, 26% average
* 88% mature
* Soybean moisture too low in many areas
* 50% of Chinese crushers remain closed  
* Brazil selling soybeans into November

Wheat
* Winter wheat 47% planted, 46% average
* Winter wheat 19% emerged, 20% average
* Ukraine raises acreage estimates
* Drought cuts Russian plantings
* Global currency values drive exports
 
Livestock
* USDA to step up ASF prevention
* Elevated inspections for illegal imports expected
* Chinese imports of US beef 9x year ago
* Australian beef exports to China 50% of year ago
* China bans beef from 5 Australian packers

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