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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Thursday, October 07, 2021
We are starting to see more positioning take place ahead of next week’s updated WASDE numbers that will be released on Tuesday, the 12th. These will include the data from the September stocks report, so an increase in soybean carryout is already expected. This has already pressured the soy complex, but that does not mean next week’s balance sheets will not apply more. Yields across the United States are coming in better than expected in many regions, even those that suffered heavy weather losses in the Western Corn Belt. Some of these areas are reporting record yields, especially on soybeans. This is generating ideas that we could see a higher production figure next week. The same scenario is unfolding in corn and a larger crop would not be a surprise. At the same time, US export demand has not been as great in recent weeks as it was prior in the calendar year. Corn sales remain ahead of last year but have dropped off considerably in recent weeks. Soybean demand remains lackluster as best as we are still seeing soybean sales out of Brazil. The combination of these factors could easily give us higher stocks to use on both crops.  

Highlights
* US Gulf exports rising
* Weather favors SAM planting, development
* China returns from holiday today
* Trade expects active Chinese buying
* US country movement up, still slow
* Favorable harvest weather to continue
* Fresh market news again sparse
* Trade starting to position for October WASDE
* US ethanol production +7% last week
* US ethanol reserves lowest since last May

Corn
* Corn oil continues to rally
* Global production estimates rising
* Export interest remains low
* Corn remains favored feed grain 
* Export loadings -65 mbu from last year
 
Soybeans
* Palm oil remains supportive
* Very little concern on soy quality
* US yields remain very good
* Technicals provide support  
* Yearly loadings -193.2 mbu

Wheat
* Russian wheat rally extended to 12 weeks
* Russian export likely short of 35 mmt estimate
* Australian crop estimates keep rising
* South American crop conditions favorable
* US exports -45 mbu from 2020
 
Livestock
* Hog packer margins hold at $80.00
* Elevated feed oils tighten feed margins
* Open interest down in livestock
* Thin trade volume applies pressure
* Consumer demand stalls

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