AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, October 08, 2021
During today’s session we will start to see elevated positioning for next week’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. This release will incorporate the data that was released in the September stocks report, so a larger soybean reserve is forecast, both for old crop and new crop. There is less concern over the corn stocks growing as the USDA lowered its reserves in the stocks data last month. The big question is what the USDA is expected to do with US yields. Several outlook models indicate the USDA will raise its soybean yield forecast, but potentially lower its corn yield estimate. These are based off current reports from harvested fields where we continue to see a wide variance in production. As always, the real question is if there are enough high yields to cover losses in others. Demand will be just as much of a factor next week and some analysts are starting to lower their usage figures. This is especially the case on exports where sales of corn, soybeans, and wheat all trail last year. Again, the most interest is falling on soybeans where the US continues to see pressure from South America in the global market.  

* US Gulf exports rising
* 25-30% of facilities still off-line
* Strong energy market supports ethanol
* Ethanol also supported by exports
* Brazil crop estimates rising
* World food values +1.2% in September
* World food values +33% from last year
* Reports of fertilizer allocation taking place
* Buyers are surfacing on breaks
* Oct WASDE next Tuesday

* Global market supports US futures
* US corn $1.50-$1.75 under global mkt
* High freight rates narrow this spread
* Steady yield expected next week
* US sales +2.8% last year
* US soybeans separate from global values
* Soybeans cheapest oilseed in world mkt
* Higher US production numbers expected
* China remains top US buyer  
* Yearly export sales -37.8% last year

* EU wheat stocks tighten, increase demand
* Russian taxes push buyers to US
* Russian yearly exports 5 mmt under estimates
* US plantings to increase
* Yearly sales -21.5% from 2020
* Cash cattle trade is thin
* 2021 weekly beef sales -3% at 15,600 mt
* 2021 weekly pork sales -48% at 22,100 mt
* 2022 beef sales at 500 mt
* YTD beef sales 2.3 bil pounds, 4.9 bil pounds pork 

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