AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, October 12, 2021
All interest to start today’s session will be getting final positioning finished ahead of the monthly WASDE report. To summarize trade is expecting to see tighter ending stocks on corn and wheat but an increase in soybean reserves. As stated, this stems from the quarterly stocks report from the end of September. The real question in the report may be what is done with this year’s production. We continue to see a wide variance in yield reports from across the Corn Belt. These range from the poorest ever to record sized. The most surprising yields are on soybeans where production is better than forecast in many regions, even those that were impacted by drought during the growing season. Corn yields are not as favorable and giving a less clear indication of any potential change. It is not out of the question the USDA could leave production unchanged this month and wait for more concrete numbers before making any adjustment. The global numbers will also be updated, and these may garner more attention, with an emphasis on South American production. Planting is taking place in better conditions than recent year’s in South America and this may cause a bump in forecasted crop sizes. 

* Brazil continues to export soybeans
* Dollar strength limits US exports
* Inflation shows no sign of slowing
* Gulf basis weakens
* Energy values negative for global trade
* Chinese demand may have peaked
* Chinese soy needs covered into December
* US yearly commodity exports overstated
* US fertilizer stocks continue to tighten
* WASDE report at 11:00 AM CT

* US yield est 175.9 bpa, crop at 14.95 bbu
* Both slightly less than September
* Harvest acres -100,000 
* 21/22 carryout est 1.42 bbu, +10 mbu
* Global stocks est 298.76 mmt, +1 mmt
* Yield est 51 bpa, crop at 4.41 bbu
* Both slightly higher than Sep
* Harvested acres remain unchanged 
* 21/22 carryout est 298 mbu, +113 mbu 
* Global ending stocks 100.72 mmt, +1 mmt

* US carryout est 582 mbu, -33 mbu from Sep
* World carryout est 280.8 mmt, -2 mmt from Sep
* Most attention to fall on world data
* China scales back imports
* US Southern Plains remain dry
* High feed costs a global concern
* Consumers scale back purchases
* Chinese pork demand remains high
* Chinese hog futures hit record highs
* Seasonal low expected in beef

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