AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, October 15, 2021
Harvest continues to progress across the United States, and as it does, we are starting to see seasonal changes to the interior cash markets. Prior to harvest starting we were seeing sizable incentives for quick ship bushels, especially on corn for ethanol manufacturing. Even when harvest started many of these processors held their bids firm to encourage movement. One reason for this was to capture current margins, but also to encourage movement as the US farmer has shown more interest in marketing soybeans than corn. Now that harvest is progressing, we are seeing corn basis values relax as movement has increased. Movement on a whole is still slower than usual, which is keeping basis values historically firm at this time of the marketing year. Soybean movement has been higher as farmers see more potential for a corn rally than for that crop. Farmers can also move less inventory and generate more revenue with soybeans which tends to increase sales as well. As harvest advances, we are starting to see a light increase in movement though, which is being taken as an indication of better yields and filling storage. Movement is high enough that the futures market now has enough carry to make the holding of inventory more lucrative.  

* US barge availability is rising
* US export demand termed “routine” 
* PNW export capacity full into January 
* River logistics improve in SAM 
* Vessels still limited to 50% of capacity
* US yields remain better than expected
* Fertilizer values top 2008 records 
* Oats hit all-time highs; 2x year ago 
* US crude inventory +6.1 million barrels last week
* US ethanol production highest since late July

* EU corn rallies to contract highs
* EU will increase imports this year
* Input costs expected to trim global acres  
* Mexico to see record imports this year
* Ukraine export program full into December
* Harvest pressure to ease
* SAM exports continue to pressure US
* Brazil meal exports in Sep +33% year ago
* Oct Malaysian palm oil exports -16.1% from Sep
* NOPA crush today est 155.07 bbu

* Further losses expected to Canadian crops
* Final crops likely under USDA estimates
* US wheat values in line with global market
* Tight global supplies ease GMO restrictions
* Black Sea expects frost this weekend

* Cattle margins strained by high feed costs
* Hogs less affected
* Chinese pork imports remain light
* China has bought 30,000 mt pork for reserves 
* Hog slaughter highest in 7 months

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