AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, October 19, 2021
While not a significant amount the US harvest pace has been slowed due to widespread rainfall. This has not been a major concern for the market though as the overall harvest pace is still ahead of the five-year average. Not only has weather slowed harvest, but so has better production as activity moves into the heart of the Corn Belt and higher yields are reported. The slowing harvest pace has also been beneficial for processors and commercial terminals as it allows them to better handle incoming bushels. One difference between this year’s crops and those in recent history is the record production that is being seen in the fringe areas. Much of this is in regions that are not accustomed to handling crops the size of this year’s, and the slow downs is preventing terminals from being overrun. The slower deliveries in the interior market are also beneficial for the export market as logistics are not back to full capacity from Hurricane Ida. Interior processors went into this year’s harvest with very little inventory which has been a benefit for commodity flow.  

* Processors push bids to capture climbing margins
* Soybean crush margin nearly $2.00 
* Ethanol margins at 50 cents 
* Brazilian coffee trade -26.5% due to container shortage
* Financial firms showing better earnings
* US ethanol exports continue to rise
* Ukraine grain yields remain elevated
* Input costs causing acreage shifts
* Analysts predict 3 mil decline to corn plantings
* Harvest pressure starting to lift

* Harvest at 52%, average is 41% 
* Analysts raise US yield estimates
* Corn displacing feed wheat  
* Quality improves as harvest progresses
* France to cut acres over input costs
* US harvest at 60%, normal is 55% 
* Privates predict 52 bpa yield
* Soybean demand likely still too high
* India lowers veg oil import tax
* Argentine acres questioned

* Wheat planting at 70% with 71% normally done
* Wheat emergence is 44%, average would be 47% 
* Buyers push back on high values
* Global stocks to remain tight
* Rains benefit US stands

* Auctions attract few buyers
* Cash cattle trade steady from last week
* Slow slaughter not supporting boxed beef 
* Japan remains leading US importer
* High values limiting export demand

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