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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Friday, October 22, 2021
Given the need for large crops of all three major crops this year we are seeing more attention on acres than usual, especially for this time of the year. The most talked about of these is for corn where we are already seeing predictions for lower acreage than last year. This is the result of high input costs, especially fertilizer. Fertilizer values have doubled in some cases from last year and industry officials claim they could be even more expensive by next spring. A greater concern on fertilizer may be availability regardless of the cost. Several of the United States’ fertilizer suppliers are limiting exports to ensure they have adequate products for needs which is tightening world inventories. This news is being welcomed by the soy complex as it may prevent the need to push for acres to continue building reserves. While inputs are a leading reason for a potential decline in corn plantings next year, so are returns for other crops. Two of the most notable are wheat and cotton. This is especially the case in fringe areas where these types of crops tend to yield better. There are many scenarios being laid out on potential acreage for next year, and we will undoubtedly see more prior to spring planting. 

Highlights
* World Bank predicts higher Ag prices into 2022
* Ukraine raises grain export forecast
* Total Ukraine grain crop +15 mmt last year
* Russia sees favorable winter crop weather
* US barge freight becomes volatile
* World energy values to stay elevated
* Coal values +100% since early September
* Half of US exports are through PNW
* Analysts predict sizable acreage shift this year
* November options expire today

Corn
* IGC raises world crop 1 mmt,  
* IGC increases total grain demand 3 mmt
* US corn $15/mt under Ukraine  
* EU bumps crop estimate 2.6 mmt
* Export sales +2.1% from last year
 
Soybeans
* Chinese crush remains limited 
* US crush to increase
* Correction to global veg oil market expected 
* Argentine exports -2.5 mmt on the year
* Yearly export sales -35.5% 

Wheat
* China sourcing needs from France
* China Sep imports -40% from 2020 
* Yearly Chinese demand still +25% 
* US Plains need more precip
* Year to date sales -20% from 2020

Livestock
* Oct 1st COF estimated 99% last year
* Sep placements 101.4%, marketings 97.2% 
* 2021 beef sales MY low at 7,800 mt
* 2022 beef sales just 200 mt
* 2021 pork sales 20,900 mt

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