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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, October 25, 2021
Much of this week will be spent getting positions in place ahead of month end. This is more of a factor for the November contracts as they will go into delivery. Soybeans will see the most activity from this, although many of the existing November contracts have already been rolled to deferred months. Aside from this contract positioning trade will continue to focus on many of the same factors this week that it has for the past several. The main one of these is harvest activity with some reports of activity winding down in a few regions of the Corn Belt. As this happens, we are starting to see elevated country movement as on-farm storage facilities are filling. This is beneficial for processors who have been pushing for deliveries. It is interesting to see than many of the deliveries that are taking place are going end-user direct and bypassing elevators. Trade is taking this as a sign the quality of this year’s crops is not as bad as initially thought. The real question is what will be done with inventory once harvest wraps up. Many farmers claim they will store this year’s crop and market later on which should help support interior basis values. 

Highlights
* High commodity values not hurting demand
* Margins offsetting higher costs
* Input costs impact on acres debated
* Price ratio favors corn over soybeans
* Farmers may look for alternative crops
* Early SAM harvest expected this year
* Elevated double cropping in SAM likely
* Canada/China trade tensions easing
* US gasoline supply -4% on the year
* FND on Nov contracts is Friday

Corn
* Privates raise US yield estimate  
* Some now 4 bpa above USDA 
* Brazil exports remain larger than expected  
* Ukraine harvest slow to build
* US corn carryout may be too high
 
Soybeans
* Private analysts close to USDA yield 
* Harvested acres may be higher
* China sourcing most needs from Sam  
* Brazil harvest to start in December
* US crush capacity to expand 250 mbu in 2 years 

Wheat
* Rains delay Chinese plantings
* High returns continue to favor plantings 
* China shopping for US offers 
* SAM yields being questioned
* SAM crops still better than last year

Livestock
* Oct 1st COF 98.5%
* Sep placements and marketings were 97% 
* Beef in cold storage at 435.3 mil pounds
* Pork in CS 466.4 mil pounds
* Pork bellies in CS 13 mil pounds 

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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