AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, October 29, 2021
Much of today’s trade will center on month end positioning. This is especially the case for the November contracts that go into delivery. As October draws to a close we will start to see more interest on November and the changes it brings to the market. For one we will see harvest wrap up across the United States and we may start to get a better idea of what total crop sizes may be. As this starts to take place we will see more positioning for the monthly WASDE report that will be released on November 9th. Typically the November WASDE report receives little market attention, but no report has gone unnoticed recently. Not only will trade focus on US production but on South American crop estimates, and of course demand. We will also start to see an overall change in the mindset of the market as we move through November. We start to see more traders position themselves for the upcoming holiday season and the breaks it can bring trade. The most notable of these is lower trade volume which can generate volatility. The shift to all electronic trade has lessened this influence, but not totally removed it.  

* Logistics remain an export deterrent 
* May take months for US logistics to improve
* PNW only loading soybeans and wheat
* Russia may expand export taxes
* River levels in SAM continue to rise
* Will be months before normal barge movement resumes
* US Plains need rains
* Brazilian inflation hits 10% 
* Slower planting pace expected next week
* FND on November contracts

* Chinese corn rallies   
* Corn in China now $10.45/bu  
* Higher Chinese imports likely  
* US exports slowing
* Yearly sales -2.6% last year
* Global production to increase 14 mmt from 20/21
* World ending stocks to increase 9 mmt
* Brazil planting remains record fast 
* China concerned with US logistics
* YTD sales -35.2% from 2020

* USDA may be underestimating global trade
* Rains favor Argentine crop 
* Buyers focused on Australian offers 
* Australian port space starting to fill
* Yearly sales -22.1% 

* Buyers concerned with Australian beef quality 
* China using domestic pork for needs 
* 2021 beef sales 19,200 metric tons
* 2022 beef sales 5,000 mt
* 2021 pork sales 29,500 mt 

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