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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, November 01, 2021
Much of today’s session will be spent getting new month positions in place. This is especially on the contracts that went into delivery last week, mainly in the soy complex. Trade is starting to search for fresh news as very little news has been released in the past week that would alter positions. The next release will be the monthly WASDE report that will be released next Tuesday, the 9th. For the most part trade is expecting to see larger crops given the yield data that has been collected since the release of the October report. There are also thoughts we may see a decline in demand as exports have struggled since that data was released. This is especially to China where our sales have been limited recently. There are questions arising over our long-term Chinese demand as well, especially as the country continues to reduce its domestic hog herd. The most interest in the November release may fall on the global side, especially any alterations to the South American crops. Until then, daily harvest data will drive our futures trade along with any flash sales, or the lack thereof. 

Highlights
* Processors predict strong margins into 2022 
* Optimism grows on SAM crop potential
* US ethanol continues to rally
* Ethanol rally negates high corn costs
* China unlikely to satisfy Phase 1 objectives
* Chinese energy values correct
* Rally not enticing new sales
* Movement likely light until January 
* Elevators report record deferred income
* New month positioning

Corn
* Export demand is quiet   
* China predicting record 650 mmt grain crop  
* Chinese corn rally supports US market  
* New crop values perking up
* Argentine crop 73% G/E, was 36% last year
 
Soybeans
* Canola at all-time highs
* Brazil planting remains record fast
* World mkt concerned with veg oil stocks 
* Analysts predict 90 mil new crop acres
* Biodiesel supporting soy complex

Wheat
* Morocco suspends wheat import tax
* SAM weather favorable for wheat 
* Rains delay US plantings
* EU wheat exports already at 11 mmt
* EU exports top trade estimates

Livestock
* Chinese hog values +30% in October 
* Brazilian beef values collapse
* China not relaxing Brazil beef ban
* Cash trade firmed last week
* Analysts predict higher US pork supply

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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