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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Thursday, November 04, 2021
Trade is anxiously awaiting this mornings export sales data to see if demand remains elevated. Demand for US corn and soybeans has perked up in recent weeks, but even greater sales are needed to reverse the downward trend in sales we have seen. Daily flash sales have been mixed with no real trend in demand. This is a shift from last spring when China was almost a  daily buyer of US corn, and then did the same with soybeans. Since then their demand has stagnated and daily sales have trailed off. While weekly sales have been above the volume needed to reach yearly expectations on corn and soybeans, we are not seeing enough of an increase that would warrant adjusting yearly projections at this time. Demand for wheat has been less with sales barely reaching the amount needed or falling short of the required amount for the past several weeks. Buyers are avoiding the US in the global market in favor of cheaper alternative sources. Freight is becoming more of a factor in export demand as buyers are starting to look at overall costs, not just the price of the commodity. This has actually pressured US sales, even where our offers are the most affordable.  

Highlights
* Rains buffer high temps in Brazil 
* Countries restrict fertilizer usage
* Most limits from fertilizer exporters
* Importers continue to lift tariffs
* US inflation is rising
* Inflation in past year the highest of last 30 years 
* China telling consumers to build food reserves
* Positioning builds for next week’s WASDE release  
* Market searching for fresh news
* Exports benefit ethanol industry

Corn
* Rains slow Argentine planting
* US yields remain better than expected  
* Fertilizer stocks to impact global production  
* Chinese crop up 4% on the year
* US export line-up thin
 
Soybeans
* US loadings 20% under 5 year average
* Argentine crop may be 7 mmt under USDA estimate
* Big acreage shifting reported in Argentina
* Additional farmer selling this fall unlikely
* Crush keeping soybeans out of export channels 

Wheat
* Argentine harvest getting underway  
* Argentine export forecast rising 
* Global weather hinders wheat development 
* Higher Russian taxes expected 
* Winter wheat plantings down 

Livestock
* YTD beef exports at 753,700 mt 
* China washing out of pork purchases
* China accounts for 12% of unshipped US pork sales
* Low likely made in boxed beef 
* Cattle slaughter hits 20 week high

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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