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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, November 08, 2021
Much of today’s session will be spent getting final positions in place ahead of tomorrow’s monthly WASDE report. Normally we see little interest on the November balance sheets as more interest is falling on actual harvest activity. This year is expected to be different though as we have had considerable interest on all supply and demand reports given the still tight carryout forecasts. In the October balance sheets stocks to use for the end of the 2021/22 marketing year were estimated at 10.1% on corn, 7.3% on soybeans, and 28.5% on wheat. The levels on corn and soybeans are both greater than in earlier reports but still at a point where light rationing is warranted. The most interest in these ratios is actually falling on wheat where ending stocks shrunk 12% from September to October. While not expected to be as great this month, and decline is expected. By no means will this put wheat in a rationing mode, if declines continue, we may reach that level in the next few months. We will also see interest placed on the global numbers tomorrow, mainly the South American crops. Private analysts have started to raise their crop projections as conditions in all South American countries are quite favorable for growth. 

Highlights
* More imports start stockpiling needs
* Global Covid restrictions being placed
* US commodities over-valued in global market
* South America receives timely rains
* Argentina seeing most benefit from moisture
* Rising food values strain world economy
* Energy demand being questioned
* US acres predicted to increase this year
* Harvest to wind down this week
* WASDE data tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT 

Corn
* Trade expects smaller carryout
* Corn -15 ¼ last week   
* Global production needs to rise  
* China not making imports 
* Harvest near 90% tonight
 
Soybeans
* Soybeans -44 cents last week
* Argentine crops smaller than USDA estimate
* US carryout likely to increase
* Attaché puts 21/22 Chinese imports at 101 mmt 
* Harvest over 90% tonight

Wheat
* Current rating 3rd lowest for this date  
* US uncompetitive in global market  
* Wheat -6 ¼ last week 
* Heavy rains reported in Australian crop  
* Russian export tax to reach $90/mt

Livestock
* Cash cattle starts to firm 
* Chinese hog herd expanding
* Chinese hog margins at $7.00/head
* US unlikely to export more pork to China
* US consumer demand sluggish

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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