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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, November 09, 2021
Nearly all of today’s session will focus on the release of the monthly WASDE data. Nearly all analysts are projecting increases in yields on corn and soybeans from October. Crop sizes are expected to be little changed though as we continue to see alterations to harvested acres. The focus will likely fall on demand. Corn exports are running ahead of expectations but have started to slow in recent weeks. This may prevent a sizable build in demand that some economists have foreseen. Soybean demand is less optimistic and there are thoughts we will see ending stocks bumped higher than last month. The real uncertainty in these numbers is what will be done on the global side. Larger crops are expected to be seen this year in Brazil, and a larger corn crop in Argentina. Argentine soybean production is expected to be smaller than a year ago as acres shift to corn where there is less of a tax burden. Once this data is released, trade will quickly turn its attention back to final harvest reports out of the US and crop reports out of South America. Current weather conditions in South America are near perfect but the threat of a La Nina impacting yields is being closely monitored.  

Highlights
* Buyers revert to hand to mouth 
* Ocean freight continues to drop
* China cuts back on all imports
* Break today may be buying opportunity
* Fertilizer to keep rallying
* South America soil moisture all adequate
* Most SAM regions comfortable into late November
* US ethanol production capacity at 97% 
* Ethanol stocks to use below normal
* WASDE today at 11:00 AM CT 

Corn
* US harvest at 84% 
* Corn yield est 176.9 bpa
* Crop size est 15.05 bbu  
* 21/22 carryout est 1.48 bbu 
* World carryout est 301.1 mmt
 
Soybeans
* US harvest at 87% 
* Yield estimate 51.9 bpa
* Crop size 4.48 bbu
* 21/22 carryout est 366 mbu
* World soybean stocks at 105.6 mmt 

Wheat
* Crop emergence 74%  
* Crop rated 45% G/E 
* 21/22 wheat carryout est 582 mbu 
* World wheat carryout 276.9 mmt  
* China canceling wheat purchases

Livestock
* Cash cattle steady on the week
* Demand for US beef record high
* Boxed beef continues to firm
* Pork exports -3.2% on the year
* Trade counting on Chinese return

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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