AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, November 10, 2021
Now that the monthly WASDE report is out of the way trade will quickly turn its attention back to the final US harvest reports for market direction. More importantly, trade will be focused on what is being done with new crop bushels. Heavy country movement took place at the start of harvest but has dropped off considerably in recent weeks. The question now is when the next wave of selling will take place, and this is unlikely to happen until after the first of the year. Farmers across the Corn Belt have little reason to market inventory at this time and are willing to wait for a market recovery. Trade will also start to focus more on the rapidly approaching South American soybean harvest. In as little as 4 to 6 weeks we could start to see new crop soybeans out of Brazil. Buyers are awaiting these as they are being offered at a sizable discount to those out of the United States. This does not mean production will no longer be a topic of market focus as there is still plenty of time for a production issue to develop. This is especially the case if the La Nina continues to build.  

* Demand for US commodities slows 
* Mexico becoming largest US customer
* Start of US soy export program slowest in 7 years
* China securing most needs from South America
* China now claims hoarding not encouraged
* German biodiesel now 8% biofuel
* Renewable fuel industry hopes to boost US demand as well 
* Mindset of market turns negative 
* US DDG values soften
* Ethanol production to hold steady  

* Corn yield 177 bpa
* Crop size 15.06 bbu
* 21/22 carryout 1.49 bbu 
* World carryout 304.4 mmt
* Average cash price projection $5.45
* Yield estimated at 51.2 bpa
* Crop size 4.43 bbu
* 21/22 carryout 340 mbu
* World soybean stocks 103.8 mmt
* Average cash price $12.10

* 21/22 wheat carryout 583 mbu 
* World wheat carryout 275.8 mmt 
* Average cash price projection $6.90
* 43% of US wheat area in drought
* Russian export tax to $69/mt today

* 2021 beef production at 27.88 billion pounds
* 2022 beef production at 27 billion pounds
* 2021 pork production at 27.68 billion pounds
* 2022 pork production at 27.59 billion pounds
* 2022 steer value estimate at $130.00 cwt, hogs at $60.25

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