AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, November 12, 2021
Harvest has now all but wrapped up across much of the United States. There are still pockets that need to be collected, but we have this nearly every year. Trade is showing a little more focus on these bushels as the quality of the remaining crops in the field is being questioned, especially on soybeans. This would be much more of an issue if soybean stocks to use were as tight as a year ago and tightening, rather than the build we are seeing in reserves this year. The real uncertainty in the market now is what producers are going to do with their new crop inventory. Sales have been sporadic all harvest season, with heavy selling on soybeans at the start of harvest but minimal corn sales. Selling of both commodities has declined since the initial flush of sales though, and buyers are now trying to predict when the next round of liquidation will be. Historically this comes after the 1st of the year when producers need money for inputs. Many elevators across the US are reporting record volumes of deferred income though and this may limit fresh selling interest. As a result, basis values in the interior market remain much firmer than usual for this time of year. 

* South American weather remains near perfect 
* Import buyers pass on US offers
* Domestic buyers reporting adequate coverage
* Total US acreage forecast to be highest in 7 years
* Transit cost on Suez Canal to increase
* Container demand on US commodities declines
* OPEC drives global energy values
* Ukraine grain exports +19% this year
* Ukraine yearly exports to rise 17 mmt
* US inflation highest in 30 years  

* Chinese corn at $10.75/bu
* Heavy snows slow Chinese harvest
* Average US basis 5 cents better than last year
* Global plantings may decline
* China shopping for Ukraine corn
* Chinese crush margins under pressure 
* US to have 32% global market share
* Brazil acres may be higher than thought
* Brazil meal exports down 17% in November
* US buyers report adequate coverage

* Black Sea weather turning dry  
* US crop remains poorly rated 
* Heavy rains continue to fall in Australia
* Quality issues may arise from rains
* Ukraine winter wheat acres -8.5% 

* Cattle packer margins at $538/head
* Total cattle processing margins at $700/head
* US red meat production -2.2% from last year
* Most losses in pork production 
* Yearly beef production is up 3%  

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