AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, November 15, 2021
Trade continues to monitor the shift in global soybean demand from the United States to South America and what it may mean for future market dynamics. The most watched of these is China who is currently sourcing nearly all needs from Brazil, both in the spot market and in the deferred months as well. China is currently buying soybeans from Brazil for December shipment and has coverage for every month through the end of summer. Bottom line from this development is that the United States is for the most part done with its yearly export program and we will now see buyers surface to fill gaps when needed. One concerning factor is that while export loadings to China remain high, we are not seeing buying to extend this coverage. It is quite likely the yearly export projection on US soybeans is too high and will continue to be lowered as the marketing year progresses. The question now is where soybeans may need to trade to to encourage more demand. Given weaker global currencies and the ongoing strength in the US dollar it is hard to predict this value at the present time, but to see soybeans deteriorate until we do see a bump in demand is likely.  

* Lack of export containers a concern 
* Global basis values remain firm 
* Managed money shifts to crypto market
* Global commodity supplies still adequate
* US inflation to continue for months
* US energy product demand remains high
* Holiday travel expected to increase 25% 
* High plantings forecast for Brazil
* China claims crops in very good condition
* Last week for significant US harvest  

* Corn last week +24 ¼ 
* Yearly export sales 1.26 bbu
* Sales vs. last year -6.1% 
* Global corn trade up 8 mmt from last year
* US corn contains high FM 
* Soybeans last week +38 ¾ 
* Yearly sales at 1.22 bbu
* Sales compared to last year -33.3% 
* China predicts fewer imports than USDA 
* NOPA crush estimate 182 mbu for October

* Wheat last week +50 ½ 
* Yearly sales 488 mbu
* Sales vs last year -22.2% 
* Heavy rains further slow Australian harvest 
* US share of global market at 11.5%  

* 2021 beef sales 20,600 mt
* 2022 beef sales 400 mt
* 2021 pork sales 23,300 mt
* US hog slaughter highest since February 
* Cumulative hog slaughter -3% from last year  

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