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AgriVisor Morning Comments

 
Tuesday, November 16, 2021
There is a well-defined division starting to form in the US commodity market; exports versus domestic consumption. Export demand for US commodities has slowed recently, mainly for the grains and oilseeds. After a very strong start to the new crop marketing year US exports of corn and soybeans have dropped well below last year and projections. This is mainly from competition in the global market from alternative sources such as Ukraine, Australia, and of course South America. It is quite possible this competition will increase, especially from South America, who may become a perpetual exporter in the very near future. The loss of this export demand is being at least partially offset by elevated demand in the domestic market, however. One of the main sources of elevated domestic production is renewable fuels with both ethanol and biodiesel production on the rise. The United States has also had increased interest for exports of these products which helps offset the loss of whole grain sales. The United States is also seeing elevated demand for its meats in the global market, especially beef. US beef exports are record high and sow no signs of slowing. This is the result of quality concerns with other world beef suppliers, particularly Brazil and Australia. This domestic demand may lessen the impact of slow exports, but unfortunately it will now completely offset it. 

Highlights
* Record global grain trade this year 
* Importers waiting for SAM supplies 
* World market has no room for yield loss
* Inputs continue to make new highs
* Gulf urea at $825/ton 
* Crypto currencies make new highs
* Higher interest rates are expected
* Cash flow limits fresh US selling 
* Sales only made for storage needs
* Drier weather favors SAM harvest and planting  

Corn
* Harvest at 91%  
* US stock to use likely to decline
* Buyers pass on US offers
* Record Canadian imports expected
* Farmers selling mostly halted 
 
Soybeans
* US harvest at 92%
* NOPA crush at 184 mbu for October
* Stocks to use likely to increase
* SAM weather favorable to finish early crops
* Soy futures follow world veg oils

Wheat
* Winter wheat 94% planted
* Winter wheat 81% emerged
* Winter wheat rated 46% G/E 
* Large spring wheat acres predicted 
* Australian wheat to up feed stocks 
 
Livestock
* Analysts not optimistic on hog values
* World pork supply rising
* Chinese pork demand has likely peaked
* More ASF reported in China 
* Japan reports high bird flu cases  

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