AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, November 18, 2021
Logistic issues continue to plague the US commodity market. Initially this was because of Hurricane Ida and the damage it caused to the US Gulf. The United States lost the majority of its export business for the month of September as buyers went to other sources for needs, mainly South America. We have since seen buyers return to the US, but many were able to secure enough coverage to last until the next South American harvest begins, limiting their overall demand for US offers. This is especially the case for soybeans where Brazil had record stocks available for export. While business at the gulf is getting back to normal, the United States is starting to see other logistic issues develop. A major one is the lack of available containers for export. The United States has several export destinations that want purchases delivered by container and the lack of these is causing business to go elsewhere. Fortunately for the US there are many other exporters suffering the same issue which is limiting trade losses. Another logistic issue is impacting the domestic market and that is slow rail movement. Not only is this causing slow movement of raw product, but of finished products as well, especially ethanol. This is causing back-logs at production facilities and lowering output.  

* Managed money driving commodities
* Uncertainty grows on US biofuel production
* Fertilizer supplies issues are global
* Energy shortage no longer concern in China 
* DDG values firming 
* Weather in SAM turns mixed
* Market rally not encouraging sales
* La Nina odds at 90% for this winter
* 50% of La Nina lasting through spring
* Weekly sales forecast to be high  

* EU to adjust corn taxes   
* Ukraine corn values rally
* Chinese corn values -3% this week
* China to increase GMO production
* Canada buying US corn  
* Global oilseed markets correcting
* Crush values improve in China
* Long range soy outlook not bullish
* Export demand has perked up
* So American crop prospects remain high

* Milling wheat values at 13-year high
* Russian exports in line with last year 
* Russian export taxes keep rising  
* Rains benefit SAM crop
* US wheat belt 43% in drought  
* Seasonal cattle rally disappointing 
* US beef cow culling continues
* Current cull rate highest since 2011
* Seasonal demand turns to pork
* Retail pork values +18% from last year   

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.