AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, November 19, 2021
We are starting to see a difference in opinion on what we are seeing for current commodity demand versus future demand projections. Recent demand for corn, soybeans, and wheat has been mixed, with import buyers surfacing on breaks and then backing away when the market rallies. This is not uncommon but makes it more difficult to accurately predict demand. Demand for corn and soybeans was strong to start the marketing year but has since backed off. This is mainly from an absence of China who has been the leading buyer of US product. The question now is if we will see demand return for the remainder of the year. As of right now this appears to be more likely on corn. Ukraine is exporting corn, but their volume is limited. A big corn crop is expected out of South America this year but that will not be ready until late spring. Until then, the United States will likely see its demand on corn increase. It is also possible we could see a rebound in soybean demand if any losses develop in the South American crop. Even if just delayed we may see more buyers for US soybeans. The most demand we see moving forward may be on wheat, especially if global production issues continue.  

* US market becoming overpriced
* SAM weather still mostly favorable
* Few changes to SAM production estimates
* Logistic issues develop for US processors 
* Rail movement of grain competes with product 
* Domestic use helping with slower exports
* Used equipment values rise considerably
* Gulf handling speeds back to normal
* More empty barges are available
* Brazil sugarcane production -11% from last year  

* Chinese corn values +8% in past 2 months   
* USDA attaché raises Canadian import forecast
* Most buyers pass on US offers
* Ukraine harvest at 73% 
* Ukraine exports equal to last year at 3.5 mmt  
* Crush margins make new highs
* Canola futures continues to rally
* Canadian canola crop smaller than thought
* US exports 24% of annual forecast
* Crush offsetting slower exports

* Ukraine exports at 13.1 mmt
* Ukraine exports forecast to rise 16%  
* Russian yearly exports down 34% 
* Low protein reported in Australian crop 
* Egypt to increase production  
* Nov 1st COF est 99.7%  
* October placements est 102.4% 
* October marketings est 96.1%  
* 2021 beef sales 25,500 mt
* 2021 pork sales 25,000 mt

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.