AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, November 22, 2021
This week starts the holiday season in the commodity markets. Trade will be shortened this week as the markets are closed on Thursday on observance of the Thanksgiving Holiday. Many traders will shore up positions for the week on Wednesday and not return until next week. This tends to increase market volatility as trade volume becomes thin. In another month we will see a repeat of this, with low market activity tending to last a little longer. It is not uncommon to see traders exit positions ahead of the Christmas Holiday and stay on the sidelines of the market until the New Year. We also start to see changes in the cash markets at this time of year. It is not unusual to see a slight increase in country movement of farm stored inventory ahead of year end. The main reason for this is the balancing of cash flow for tax purposes. In recent years we have witnessed a rise in deferred income from farmers though, and many can adjust their money needs by taking this rather than making new sales. The next sizable flush of farm stored inventory is expected to come after the first of the year as producers cover next year’s expenses.  

* US dollar continues to set new highs
* Holiday spending expected to be large
* Covid restrictions may start to impact energy demand
* Heavy fall fertilizer applications reported 
* Little talk of actual acreage shifting  
* Commodities driven by outside markets
* Inflation buying heightens volatility
* More importers reduce/remove tariffs
* Trade will be closed Thursday
* Markets close early on Friday  

* Corn – 6 ½ cents last week
* Argentine crop rated 91% G/E
* Ukraine crop larger than USDA est
* Mexico yearly imports to increase 1.7%  
* Brazil corn $2.00 under September highs
* Soybeans +19 cents last week
* Buyers looking out to 2023
* US oil supply weighs on complex
* Limited dryness so far in SAM 
* Record production still expected

* Wheat +6 cents last week
* Managed money in wheat near record high
* Jump in US plantings expected 
* Canada acres to expand 6% 
* US wheat supply lowest in 14 years  
* Nov 1st COF 100% last year  
* October placements 102% 
* October marketings 95% of 2020
* Light cash trade expected this week
* Buyers focused on holiday demand 

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.