AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, November 24, 2021
The majority of today’s trade will be spent getting positions in place ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday. Trade will be open normal hours today and be closed all day tomorrow. Trade will resume at 8:30 AM CT on Friday, but close early at 12:05 PM CT. Many traders will simply shore up their positions in the market today and remain absent until next week. One difference between this month  and others with holidays is that Thanksgiving is only celebrated in the United States. That means other commodity market around the world will be open. We will also have the December options expire on Friday in a shortened session with very low volume. To see over-exaggerated movement is such an environment is not only possible but highly anticipated. This scenario could easily create a window for a cash sale opportunity if needed. For today’s session trade will again pay close attention to the weekly ethanol data. Last week’s production report was up from the previous week and ethanol stocks declined. There are thoughts we will see a similar pattern this week as travel ramps up across the United States.  

* US ethanol supply tightest since Dec 2016
* US ethanol stocks an 18 day supply
* La Nina becoming more noticeable
* World market cannot afford any production loss
* Russia reports nitrogen shortage of 40% 
* Total Russian fertilizer stocks -24% 
* US river system closing for winter
* US unemployment continues to improve
* Rising costs may slow Brazil expansion 
* Markets closed tomorrow   

* Ethanol demand keeps rising 
* Corn use underestimated 150-200 mbu
* Rains benefit Argentine crop 
* Higher EU imports expected
* Total US corn commitments -6% from 2020
* Analysts raise Argentine crop estimates 
* Domestic demand greater than exports
* US ending stocks likely to rise 
* China remains active buyer
* Soy commitments -32% on the year 

* Fertilizer shortage to impact Russian crop 
* EU lowers export forecast
* Next year’s production to rebound 
* UK feed wheat at 9 year high  
* US sales -21% on the year  
* Boxed beef becomes volatile  
* Hog slaughter rising 
* US pork production -3% from last year
* Pork production +17% from 2010
* Pork production +45% from 2000

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.