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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Friday, November 26, 2021
Today’s trading session will be shortened considerably. The markets will open at 8:30 CT and close at 12:05 PM CT. Many traders showed up their positions on Wednesday and will remain absent today, returning next Monday. We will see the December options expire today which does tend to cause elevated activity. Given the thin volume that is expected in Chicago, this may create wide price swings. First notice day on the December contracts is next Tuesday which may only elevate market positioning and volatility even more. The export sales numbers that are typically released on Thursday will be released today instead. Trade is expecting to see high numbers given the numbers of daily sales that were announced over recent weeks. Grain sales have been concerning in recent weeks as the United States is the highest priced source for these in the global market and buyers have opted to cover needs from those as a result. Ending stocks on corn and wheat is forecast to remain tight next year and possibly shrink even with current demand though which is starting to offset low exports. The most interest on exports has fallen on soybeans where stocks to use remains tight, even with elevated production reports. A major factor in today’s trade will be renewed Covid worries which have caused substantial losses in the outside markets overnight.  

Highlights
* Covid concerns weigh heavily on outside markets
* Wettest November in Matto Grasso Brazil since 1979
* Argentine soil moisture near surplus levels
* SAM to turn drier in December
* Consumer demand is slowing 
* Managed money interest in commodities rising
* China starting to withdraw from global market
* December options expire today
* FND on Dec contracts next Tuesday
* Markets close at 12:05 CT   

Corn
* Buyers shift to optional origin  
* Chinese imports at 26.2 mmt for the year
* US exports remain depressed 
* US corn most competitive in global market
* Argentina continues to sell old crop corn
 
Soybeans
* Trade not seeing confirmation of export rumors 
* Energy values drive soy oil 
* Cash markets support futures 
* Complex sensitive to SAM weather
* SAM harvest rapidly approaching 

Wheat
* Russian export tax at $78.00/mt 
* Tax could reach $100/mt
* Wheat over-priced as feed grain 
* French wheat reported at 99% G/VG   
* Limited downside seen in wheat   
  
Livestock
* US yearly consumer demand on red meat -3.4%   
* Current per capita consumption at 25.8 pounds 
* Red meat demand lowest since 2015
* Cash trade very thin this week
* Packers satisfied with holiday coverage

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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