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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, November 29, 2021
The majority of this week’s early trade will be spent getting positions in place ahead of month end. While many nearby contracts have already been rolled out, there is always a few that hold on to the last few days of the month. This will be most noticeable on the grains where the December contracts go into delivery. Tomorrow is first notice day on the December contracts which will impact corn and wheat more than other contracts. Month end positioning may be more noticeable than in recent months as the volume of managed money in commodities on a whole has been on the rise. Once we get past month end, we will start to see added interest on South American crops, mainly when harvest will start on Brazilian soybeans. There are thoughts this will be taking place in the next two weeks and soybeans may be available for export by mid to late December. The United States has had a build in export demand in the past week on soybeans, but this may bring an end to that activity. Trade will also be monitoring the remaining US bushels that need to be harvested. While harvest for the most part is complete, there are still regions with standing crops, and their quality is being heavily questioned. We will also continue to see market reaction to the new Covid strain and its impact on all markets. 

Highlights
* Inflation worries limit managed money buying
* Canada reports major fertilizer shortages
* Russia will honor contracted fertilizer 
* Warm US temps have tempered energy markets
* Rising temps a concern in So America 
* Geopolitical issues impact commodity trade
* Farmers 50-60% sold on inventory
* Brazil to expand ethanol production
* Loadings at PNW starting to speed up
* Tomorrow is FND on Dec contracts   

Corn
* Chinese buying expected in early 2022  
* Brazil crop larger than thought
* Demand for US crop underestimated 
* Argentine crop est a record 55 mmt
* Few Dec deliveries expected
 
Soybeans
* Demand likely overestimated 
* China remains top export destination 
* China import pace slowing 
* Meal demand keeps rising
* Brail to put biodiesel blend rate at 13% 

Wheat
* Fertilizer supply to impact Canadian plantings
* Drought expands in US Wheat Belt 
* 44% of Wheat Belt abnormally dry  
* Ukraine exports 8 mmt this year
* Argentine harvest at 18%    
  
Livestock
* Boxed beef slowly declining    
* Buyers surface on cattle breaks 
* Dairy complex showing strength
* US red meat supply -3% from last year
* China to ease Brazil import regulations

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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