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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Thursday, December 02, 2021
Within the next few weeks soybean harvest will be getting underway in Brazil. This is not a shock and trade has had plenty of time to prepare for it. The most interest when harvest starts is how long it will take for exports to follow with some sources claiming they will be nearly immediate. Others believe it may take a few weeks for the soybeans to filter into the supply line. Brazil is still exporting old crop soybeans though, so we may really not see much of a delay at all. Some analysts are looking beyond the soybean harvest though and focusing on how much double cropping may take place. Initially it was thought Brazilian farmers would plant a much larger Safrinha crop than last year due to elevated values and increasing global corn demand. How big of a crop is actually grown will depend heavily upon weather conditions in  Brazil and if the La Nina continues to intensify. Input availability will also be a factor for Safrinha production, mainly fertilizer. Trade will be closely monitoring today’s export sales data. We have had a build in export numbers in recent weeks, but daily sales announcements have slowed which may temper the weekly volumes. 

Highlights
* US flash sales slow
* India to increase DDG imports
* DDG values have been pressured
* High values slow global trade
* Labor talks to slow West Coast imports 
* Domestic demand at full capacity
* Export interest has slowed
* Less than 10% of Argentine soils dry 
* Managed money flow is sporadic 
* Fresh news is thin    

Corn
* EU imports -30% from last year  
* Global feed grain supply questioned 
* China buying from Ukraine  
* China rotating inventory  
* Brazil plantings higher than thought   
 
Soybeans
* October crush totaled 197 mbu
* US crushers to expand capacity  
* Interior basis is mixed, gulf is firm   
* New crop demand is light 
* Brazil planting in later stages  

Wheat
* Feed interest is rising   
* World market focused on Black Sea values   
* Flour values at record highs   
* World milling quality wheat record low stocks 
* Australian harvest at 40%      
  
Livestock
* Trade looking for higher exports    
* Demand shifting to 2022  
* Yearly pork exports -200,000 mt  
* Domestic demand to slow  
* Red meat consumption may slow after holidays

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