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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Wednesday, January 12, 2022
The long awaited January USDA reports will finally be released today. The most talked about of these is the monthly WASDE report, but the quarterly stocks data and the winter wheat assessment report will also be released today. The reason the WASDE report will garner more attention is that for one it contains the final US production totals on last year’s crops, and it will also give us a better indication of what the USDA is projecting for South American production losses. These two factors have the ability to alter world balance sheets for the remainder of the marketing year, and potentially into next year as well. Domestically trade is expecting to see increases to crop sizes of 16 million bu on corn and 9 million bu on soybeans. Trade is expecting slight reductions to South American crops, with more to come as the production season advances. Once this data is released, trade will revert its attention back to immediate market developments, including global weather, exports, and the world economy. We will also start to receive more accurate yield reports out of South America and these will either negate or amplify the numbers that will be released from the USDA today as well as private firms that continue to project South American crops as well.  

Highlights
* CONAB lowers Brazil crops estimates
* Livestock producers show concerns over feed costs
* Some feeders cut back on inventory 
* Importers shop for feed grain alternatives
* Feeders taking DDGs over meal
* Basis values starting to soften
* WASDE data at 11:00 AM CT     
* Quarterly stocks, wheat assessment also released
* Trade expecting neutral domestic numbers
* More interest on global figures 

Corn
* US yield estimated 177.1 bpa
* US crop size est 15.08 bbu
* US carryout est 1.48 bbu 
* World carryout est 303.6 mmt 
* Dec 1st stocks est 11.6 bbu
 
Soybeans
* US yield est 51.3 bpa
* US crop est 4.4 bbu
* US carryout est 353 mbu   
* World carryout est 99.7 mmt
* Dec 1st stocks est 3.13 bbu

Wheat
* Winter wheat acres est 34.3 million            
* US carryout est 609 mbu
* World carryout est 278.7 mmt   
* Dec 1st stocks est 1.42 bbu
* China to auction reserves today
  
Livestock
* Feeders worried over break-evens 
* Reports of hog facilities sitting empty
* Brazil yearly poultry exports +9% 
* Daily cattle slaughter -6% from last year
* Daily hog slaughter -4.5% on the year 

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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