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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Monday, May 16, 2022
The release of the May WASDE report is well behind us now, but that does not mean it is not a marketing factor. Trade is fully aware the stocks to use on corn, soybeans, and wheat will remain tight for at least another year, and that is if we do not see any production loss from this point forward. When it comes to the possibility of lower yields the emphasis right now is on the grains, mainly corn. Corn planting has been delayed in several regions of the United States from the average pace this year. Trade is looking at this development in two different ways. One is that even with delays there is plenty of time to see a trend corn yield if the remainder of the growing season is more normal when it comes to weather conditions. Another way trade is looking at it is the rapid planting we experienced in the past few years have distorted the average pace. One thing trade does agree on is that the later corn planting takes place, the greater the possibility of yield drag. The debate is when this reduction starts though, with some saying as soon as May 10th, while others claim loss is not noticeable until we get to June on corn plantings. 

Highlights
* 80% of spring wheat area wetter than normal  
* 13% of US corn dry in past 30 days 
* Russian inflation reported at 20%  
* Czech Republic inflation at 14.2% 
* EU to offer Ukraine export assistance 
* China investigating loss of farmland
* US evaluating Chinese trade tariffs 
* China commodity demand is slowing 
* Analysts question high US yield forecasts
* Active planting data expected  

Corn
* July corn -3 ½ last week
* France to reduce corn plantings 5.9% 
* Brazil farm sales down on the year
* Safrinha rating down, better than last year        
* Argentina ramps up exports ahead of tax hike  
 
Soybeans
* July soybeans +24 ½ last week   
* NOPA crush est 172.37 mbu
* India lowers veg oil import forecast  
* China ups import forecast for next year        
* Total Chinese demand likely peaked      

Wheat
* July Chicago wheat +69 last week
* India shipments uncertain       
* EU harvest to slow Ukraine shipments
* Delays to Dakota’s seedings an issue
* US uncompetitive in global market
  
Livestock
* Markets prepare for Memorial Day 
* Trade expects elevated grilling demand
* Beef values +24% in last quarter
* Pork values up 10.8% last quarter
* Poultry values up 14.4% as well 

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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