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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Tuesday, May 17, 2022
Corn planting across the United States was slightly higher than trade was expecting with 49% of the crop now seeded. While this was a sizable increase on the week it still trails the average pace of 67%. Corn is now 14% emerged with the normal amount being 32%. Soybean planting fell just under trade expectations with 30% of the crop in. This also trails the normal rate by 9%. Soybeans are reported as 9% emerged though, just under the average amount of 12%. On the winter wheat crop all interest was on the rating and this fell to just 27% Good/Excellent as drought and heat continue to impact the Lower Plains states. Spring wheat planting remains heavily delayed with 39% of the crop planted and a normal pace of 67%. What trade may focus on rather than the planting pace on corn and soybeans this week is how much fieldwork will be done in the next seven days. It is likely more planting was done last week than data shows as the weekly numbers are taken as of Sunday. A large volume of planting was done between then and the Monday afternoon release, and much more will be done this week.  

Highlights
* World ethanol demand rising  
* US ethanol logistics improving  
* US ethanol stocks still +24.5% on the year 
* Food inflation at 9.4%  
* China showing more interest in US offers 
* Chinese economy becoming more unstable
* Ukraine port closures hurting country’s economy 
* High prices limit global trade 
* US dollar continues to rally 
* Consumer demand not slowing   

Corn
* Planting progress at 49% 
* Emergence is 14% 
* Farmers increase new crop sales
* Chinese corn demand lowered        
* Interior basis pushes noted  
 
Soybeans
* Crop is 30% planted  
* Emergence is at 9% 
* EU imports down on the year  
* Smaller Ukraine oilseed crop expected        
* 22/23 Brazil crop estimated at 146 mmt      

Wheat
* Winter wheat rated 27% G/E
* Spring wheat 39% planted      
* Spring wheat emergence at 16% 
* Drought trims Argentine crop
* Ukraine wheat output to drop 33% 
  
Livestock
* Cash cattle trade working lower 
* Pork cutouts softens
* Meat alternatives see major losses
* Beef production to decline in early 2023
* US beef exports +2.9% on the year

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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