AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, June 15, 2022
Markets open the overnight session on the defensive following the holiday weekend.  Weather runs are not as hot/dry as previously expected. However, there is still no indication that meaningful rainfall between now and July. Crop stress will begin to mount as soil moisture reserves are exhausted. Commodities will look for price direction as grains have been torn between weather and economic fears which is causing a lot of uncertainty.  Export inspections and crop progress report will be released today. Many are looking for crop conditions to fall 1-2 points. Unconfirmed reports of Russian forces unloading 14 missiles on a food warehouse in the Black Sea Port of Odessa, reports say the warehouse has been destroyed. The attack comes after Ukrainian forces attacked drilling platform in the Black Sea. Ukraine is expected to have exported 1.7 MT of grain in May by land. Exports are expected to increase to 2.0 MT which would be the maximum that the existing infrastructure can provide through land routes.  The Biden administration is expected to announce some time this week whether he would support a federal gasoline tax holiday possibly saving consumers 18.4 cents per gallon. White House officials are exploring ideas of sending Americans rebate cards to offset higher fuel prices but the world chip shortage could shut that idea down.
* Weather risk being removed from the markets
* Americans are starting to cut back on travel and restaurants
* Risk of recession rising as inflation worsens
* Two Americans captured by Russian forces  
* This week the EU will decide if Ukraine will be a member of the EU 27’s
* Malaysian palm oil edges higher ending 4 session losing streak
* Acute dryness developing across Illinois into July
* NOAA’s 6–10-day outlook shows cool-down coming
* Fund managers cutting their commodity positions
* Dow futures expected to open sharply higher
* China seeing more Covid cases in the south.
* Brazil corn harvest nears 15% complete vs. 8.33% average
* China’s May corn imports from Ukraine plunged
* U.S. crop conditions expected to fall over the next two weeks
* Southern Plains stay hot and dry stressing corn crop
* Soybean oil and meal open lower
* China imported 7.79 MT from Brazil in May vs. 9.23 MT last year
* May soy shipments from the U.S. totaled 1.73 MT vs. 244K last year
* Brazil shipped 2.78 MT of soybeans last week
* EU’s crop monitoring service lowers 2022 wheat yield
* HRW harvest is advancing quickly
* Reports of 60# test weights in central/western Kansas 
* SocEcon raises 2022 Russian wheat forecast to 89.2 MMT
* Wheat markets under harvest pressure
* Sente Ag panel will vote on two cattle related measures this week
* Chinese pork imports down 7.1% in May due to Covid restrictions
* Firmer cash cattle trade expected this week
* July hogs back above cash index
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