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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Wednesday, June 22, 2022
The ratings on the US corn and soybean crops both decreased last week. As of Sunday night the US corn crop was rated 70% Good/Excellent, -2% from last week. This is still a 5% better rating than last year at this time. The soybean crop is rated 68% G/E, -1 point on the week. The soybean crop is 8% better than last year. Soybean emergence is at 83% which is likely distorting the rating. Winter wheat condition declined 1% on the week and now stands at 30% G/E. This rating is f=down a large 19% on the year. Harvest of the winter wheat is just ahead of the average pace at 25% complete. The spring wheat rating came in at 59% G/E, and Us pastures are now rated as 31% G/E/. Attention in the market now is on weather across the United States as high temperatures limited precipitation are being seen in many regions. Long range outlooks indicate these conditions are just temporary though and more favorable weather will set in as we move closer to July. Other outlooks expect to see stressful crop conditions persist which is adding to market volatility. Expect futures to follow the latest weather report.  

Highlights
* Ukraine working on export alternatives
* Covid continues to impact trade   
* Energy costs continue to impact trade 
* Energy costs also affecting global planting 
* US trying to determine unplanted acres
* Prevent plant acres pressure fertilizer 
* Chinese buying has slowed
* June options expire Friday
* Trade focused on June 30th reports
* FND on July contracts also June 30th 

Corn
* Carryout estimate may be 300 mbu too high
* Census exports larger than USDA  
* Cumulative loadings -5% from estimates  
* Ukraine production estimates rising 
* Pollination weather forecasts watched closely
 
Soybeans
* More concern shown over US ending stocks
* Old crop carryout lowest in 6 years  
* New crop has no room for yield loss  
* Cash continues to lead futures 
* Privates raise Brazil crop est  

Wheat
* Russia keeps raising crop est
* Crop now at 87 mmt       
* EU crop deteriorating  
* Crop likely -5 mmt from USDA est  
* US demand underestimated   
  
Livestock
* Economic worries pressure cash demand  
* Packers have July 4th needs covered 
* Chinese demand remains uncertain 
* Total export demand slowing   
* Slaughter rates slowing

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation. 
 

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