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AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

 
Thursday, June 23, 2022
We are now just a week away from the long awaited June revisions to the March planting intentions data. This report will be released on the 30th and is expected to show changes to US planted acreage from the spring release. Not all analysts agree on what we may see for changes, however. In March the USDA predicted planted acres of 89.5 million on corn, 91 million for soybeans, and 47.4 million for wheat. Since then we have seen less than perfect weather conditions that likely will shave acres off the wheat figure. The most interest is on corn and soybeans, where some analysts feel the March data was 2 million acres too low on corn plantings and 2 million too high on soybeans. This is why some analysts are not as concerned with a possibility of corn acre being abandoned in the Upper Plains, as they feel overall corn plantings may still be higher. There is more concern on the soy figure, as even with 91 million acres being planted the stocks to use on new crop inventory is still very tight. If we start to reduce acres it could push the US into a rationing position, even if yields are favorable. The quarterly stocks data will also be released next week and could be just as influential on trade.  

Highlights
* Russia to increase crude oil production
* Extreme heat impacts US Plains   
* Concerns build over long range weather 
* Damage also reported in EU crops 
* Argentina considers higher biodiesel blend
* Drought impacting Argentine wheat 
* Input costs impact global production
* More countries to expand oilseed plantings
* Trade focused on June 30th reports
* July options expire Friday 

Corn
* Brazil yields remain high
* Analysts raise crop estimate  
* Brazil may decrease plantings in 2022/23  
* Ukraine grain exports in June -44% from 2021 
* Technicals provide support
 
Soybeans
* US crush margins very good
* Some reports of $2.75 returns  
* Brazil soy cheaper than US   
* Malaysian monthly Palm Oil exports -12.5%  
* China to auction 500.000 mt Friday 

Wheat
* Spring crop much better than last year
* Harvest pressure building        
* High temps speed maturity  
* Wide variability in yields reported  
* Analysts raise Ukraine crop est   
  
Livestock
* Wholesale beef firms  
* Cash cattle trade is light 
* Most sales reports $135 to $138 
* Pork values firming    
* Hog slaughter remains light  

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