AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, July 01, 2022
Much of today’s session will likely be spent still sorting through yesterday’s USDA data and making revised stocks to use estimates. This not only from the stocks figures, but from acreage as well. These numbers will be included in the July WASDE report so expect changes to be seen there as well. New month positioning is likely today, but more so next Tuesday after the long holiday weekend, as trade is closed next Monday. This could make for an interesting open to start next week if this weekend’s weather forecasts remain dry. Much of the US now in need of rains to prevent further crop  deterioration. The ratings of both corn and soybeans declined 3% last week and weather conditions have not changed much since that data was collected. Next week is also when we may get an idea if the managed money crowd will return to the commodity market. Commodities are not as attractive to these buyers as they once were, and it is being reflected in values. Today’s market is still in need of risk premium through, and this has been providing a floor. Markets will be closed next Monday so all reports will be backed up one day.  

* Brazil continues to raise crop estimates
* Russian wheat crop estimate rising
* Russian wheat crop now at 88.8 mmt
* US processors taking down-time 
* Domestic buyers going “hand to mouth” on needs
* World food demand to increase ¼% per year
* Global fertilizer trade monitored
* July 4th cook out cost up 40% from 2021 
* Fats and Oilseeds report after the close
* No trade next Monday 

* US acres 89.9 million
* Acreage +400,000 from March 
* June 1st stocks 4.346 bbu 
* Stocks +236 mbu from last June   
* On farm stocks +6% from last year 
* Planted acreage 88.3 million 
* Acreage -2.7 million from March
* June 1st stocks 971 mbu   
* Stocks +202 mbu from 2021
* On farm stocks +26% on the year     

* Total US acreage 47 million 
* Acreage -300,000 mil from March
* Total US acres 5th lowest since 1919        
* June 1st stocks 660 mbu  
* Stocks -185 mbu from 2021  

* Weekly beef sales 17,000 mt    
* Beef sales +52% on the week
* Weekly pork sales 32,300 mt  
* Pork sales +27% from last week
* China a large beef buyer, no pork  

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.