Menu
 

E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Monday, August 10, 2020
The early portion of this week will be spent getting positions in place ahead of the monthly WASDE report that will be released on Wednesday. The most interest going into this will be on production given the time of year we are at. Many analysts have raised their production forecasts in recent weeks, and projections of 182 bushels per acre on corn and 52 bushels per acre on soybeans are not uncommon. We cannot forget about the demand side of this report though, and in fact, that may be more of an influence on market reaction than yields. New crop exports have been strong for the United States, with record paces seen on corn and soybeans. The majority of this has been to China though, and while welcomed, always generates worries over possible cancellations prior to shipping. There is also uncertainty over how long this demand will last, as China has made it well known they would rather source needs from South America than the US. We cannot forget the possible changes on domestic demand in the balance sheets either. Soybean crush has been at a record pace this marketing year and will likely surpass expectations. The USDA is projecting a steady crush from old to new crop though, and we may see a slight increase in that use. Ethanol demand has been up on corn in recent weeks and is now on track to meet the current old crop estimate for the year. The USDA is using a 350 higher number for new crop though, and that is being questioned. The same is true on feed demand being 250 mbu higher next year, even with elevated livestock numbers. While early, we may see more reaction in the new crop numbers than old crop given these projections. 

Highlights
* US/China talks this coming Saturday
* Topics to focus on Phase 1
* Lower commodity values attract buyers
* Global trade policy becoming political topic
* Active hurricane season expected
* World food prices rising
* Favorable ratings expected tonight
* Focus will be on Iowa drought impact
* Fresh news becoming sparse
* WASDE report on Wednesday
 
Corn
* Ratings expected to hold steady tonight
* Corn rating 15% better than year ago
* Ukraine raises crop estimate
* Brazil harvest pressure builds
* Chinese corn auction brings lower values
 
Soybeans
* Rating to hold steady
* Current rating record high for early August 
* Soybeans sharply lower in Brazil
* China remains leading buyer of US offerings
* Weather remains favorable for soy production
 
Wheat
* Russia continues to under-cut global market
* Australian wheat crop to increase 75% this year
* France continues to lower crop estimate
* Record Canadian crop expected
* Start of US export program largest in 2 years
 
Livestock
* Slaughter slowed last week
* Beef exports mixed
* Restaurant demand well below estimates
* Buyers continue to opt for cheaper meat cuts
* US cattle/hog supply remains large

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.