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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Thursday, August 13, 2020
 
Even with bearish numbers, trade was quick to shrug off yesterday’s monthly WASDE report. The most talked about were the yield estimates that increased a full 3.3 bushels per acre on corn and 3.5 bpa on soybeans. This will give the market more than enough production to satisfy demand, even with increases to some figures. Trade was expecting bearish data though, and much of this was already priced into futures. Traders were also quick to point out this data was collected prior to this week’s losses in the Western Corn Belt, and those will likely alter figures in September. Interest will shift from the WASDE data to the weekly export sales totals today, at least for a short period of time. The United States has seen large new crop sales in recent weeks, especially to China. China has already booked the most new crop soybeans from the US in six years and shows no sign of slowing. We are also at the time of year when we start to get a better idea of how many old crop sales may be rolled to new crop delivery. Given the time we are at it will be hard to get anymore old crop sales shipped in this year. We have already seen old crop sales canceled and to see more would not come as a surprise. This may be monitored more than normal as trade wants to see if sales are actually rolled or cancelled altogether. 

Highlights
* WASDE report reaction
* Weather mostly non-threatening
* Chinese inflation greater than thought
* Entire global economy remains worrisome
* Corn/Wheat spread narrows
* CFAP payments total $7 billion
* Half of CFAP has went to livestock producers
* US basis values become volatile
* Storage concerns build in West Corn Belt
* China flash sale streak at 5 days
 
Corn
* Yield at 181.8 bpa; +3.3 from July
* Crop 15.278 bbu; +278 mbu
* 2019/20 carryout 2.228 bbu
* 2020/21 carryout 2.756 bbu
* Average cash value $3.10, -25 cents
 
Soybeans
* Yield at 53.3 bpa; +3.5 bpa
* Crop 4.425 bbu; +290 mbu
* 2019/20 ending stocks 615 mbu
* 2020/21 carryover 610 mbu
* Average cash value $8.35; -15 cents
 
Wheat
* All wheat production 1.838 bbu
* 2020/21 carryout 975 mbu
* Average cash value $4.50; -10 cents
* Russia increases crop est 1.5 mmt
* Russian wheat remains cheapest in world market
 
Livestock
* 2020 beef production 27.028 mil pounds; +94 mil from July
* 2021 beef production est 27.62 mil pounds
* 2020 pork production 28.36 mil pounds; -179 mil from July
* 2021 pork production est 28.57 mil pounds
* Chinese pork values up 85.7% from year ago

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.