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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Wednesday, August 26, 2020
We are now at a stage of the marketing year where we will start to see a shift in weather interest by trade. Up to this point all focus has been on the United States, but now we will start to see more on South America. This is not unusual as those countries are starting to get planting underway. Of course the most interest is on rainfall and how Argentina continues to suffer from drought conditions. We have already seen reductions to Argentine planting estimates from dry fields and it is not out of the question we could see more. Soil moisture conditions in Brazil are much better, but trade will want to make sure these persist. What has been more of a factor in Brazil has been cold temperatures which are thought to have affected some early seeded corn. This does not mean weather is no longer an issue in the United States though, as there is still time to add to or reduce crop size. It is also not uncommon to see crop quality impacted tat this stage of the year from weather. Before long we will start to see if weather will impact harvest, which can be more of a factor in basis than futures. 

Highlights
* Hurricane Laura to make landfall
* Heavy damage to crops expected
* Corn Belt on track to have one of driest Augusts on record
* Precip in Corn Belt just 77% of normal over past 2 weeks
* EU continues to lower crop estimates
* Very little rain forecast for Midwest
* US remains pleased with Phase 1 progress
* Light freeze damage reported in Brazil
* More US frackers file for bankruptcy
* Market searching for fresh news 

Corn
* Ukraine crop lowered 2 mmt
* Corn continues to rally in China
* Chinese auctions continue
* Heat stressing US crop 
* Doubts cast over yield estimates
 
Soybeans
* Chinese yearly imports +109%
* Global oilseed weakens
* Funds remains buyers of soybeans
* Brazil exports slow
* India production to rise 32%
 
Wheat
* Buyers balking at higher values
* Global trade remains high
* Canadian crop estimates rising
* Chinese yearly imports +117%
* Cold weather does not impact Australian crop
 
Livestock
* Cattle slaughter down from last year
* Hog slaughter +1.2% on the year
* China’s yearly pork imports total 2.56 mmt
* China’s July pork imports up 136% on the year
* Pork to China valued at $1.023 billion

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.