E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Thursday, September 03, 2020
We are starting to hear mixed opinions on this year’s crop conditions. While the national crop ratings have declined in recent weeks, these have been drug down by conditions in a few select regions. Others have claimed crop conditions have actually improved following rain events and cooler temperatures. Some regions of fringe states are reporting soybeans that are still setting pods, which will help offset losses in other areas, mainly the much talked about Iowa. Even in Iowa sources claim the crops are not as bad as initially thought. It appears as though this is definitely going to be a year with very good and very poor crops. As always, this mixed opinion is giving us an elevated amount of volatility in the futures market. Commodities are also being driven by the outside markets, especially the US dollar. The US dollar continue to drop in value which is historically beneficial for US exports. While US export interest has perked up recently, some buyers report having most of their needs covered and are unwilling to extend coverage, even with a weaker dollar. Many are also waiting to see if the dollar decreases even further before extending coverage, especially on the new crop months. Much interest will be placed on the soy complex today as yesterday there were several demand-based rumors that gave it support. These included reports of several Chinese purchases and speculation that Brazil may be importing US soybeans. 

* New farm incomes in 2020 to reach $102.7 billion
* 2020 farm subsidy payments a record $37.2 billion
* CFAP payments totaled $9.44 billion on August 31st
* Iowa leads CFAP payments with $935 million
* Much cooler temperatures forecast for next week
* Yields may be better than thought
* Commodity use does not exceed projections
* China’s economy appears to be improving
* China suspends more Australian imports
* Brazil may extend ethanol import tariff waivers 

* Global corn plantings rising
* Harvest activity rising
* Corn use for feed up
* US total corn exports at 1.64 bbu; was 1.86 bbu year ago 
* Brazil August corn exports -11% from 2019
* Buyers showing more interest in Brazil new crop
* Brazil only received 75% of normal precip in August
* Soybean planting in Brazil to start next week
* Brazil August exports +1.2% from last year
* US July soy oil stocks -6.4% from June
* US yields remain “good”
* Market searching for fresh news
* Early frost potential monitored in upper Plains
* Large Canadian crop adds market pressure
* US struggling to remain competitive
* Cash trade very light this week
* Consumers opting for cheaper cuts of meat 
* China food shortage questioned
* Brazil August beef exports +28,000 mt year ago
* Brazil August pork exports up 38,700 mt from 2019

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