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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Friday, September 04, 2020
We may see more positioning that normal during today’s session by the fund crowd. This is from the fact the markets are closed next Monday for the Labor Day Holiday. While weather is typically a non-event for production at this time of the year, volatility has been on the rise in recent weeks, and funds may simply want to shore up positions. One weather factor trade is more closely watching is the cold temperatures that are expected next week with non-killing frost expected in some regions. While it is doubtful this will bring an early end to the growing season, anything that is impacting crops this year has been influential. Once traders return from the holiday break, we will likely start to see more positioning for the September WASDE report. This is the first one of the year to contain field collected data and may be one of the most watched from that aspect. We have already seen lower yield estimates from private crop tours and thoughts are the same will come from the USDA, especially on corn. Trade may show more interest in actual field collected data as harvest activity is expected to increase next week.  

Highlights
* US import/export gap widens
* World food values up for 3rd straight month
* Record commodity values to cause expansion in Brazil
* Gold values up 17% from April lows
* US dollar remains weak
* Global economy remains unstable
* Ukraine grain harvest to be down 7 mmt
* WASDE report next Friday
* FSA will also update acres on the 11th 
* Stats Canada to release grain stocks today

Corn
* China only sells 34% of corn at auction
* Ukraine corn production to decline 8%
* Further rating decline next Tuesday
* Private yield estimates remain high
* Export loadings -11.7% from year ago
 
Soybeans
* Ratings may hold steady next week
* Yield reduction estimates remain minimal
* Reports of plants still setting pods
* Open Interest climbing
* Brazil yearly exports estimated at 82 mmt
 
Wheat
* Canadian crop largest in 7 years
* US exports remain above year ago
* Buyers opt for corn over feed wheat
* Wheat values at highest levels since April
* Russia continues to hold wheat
 
Livestock
* China to auction 20,000 mt pork today
* China will also auction 4,400 mt beef/mutton 
* Weekly US beef sales 11,354 mt
* Weekly pork sales 2nd highest of 2020 at 53,646 mt
* China was buyer of 54% of pork sales

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.