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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Tuesday, September 08, 2020
The early potion of this week’s trade will be spent getting final positions in place ahead of the September supply and demand report. This will be closely watched as it will contain the first batch of field collected data that will be used in crop prediction. Thoughts are we will see lower yields, especially on corn given recent crop tour results. That said, the real question will be how much of a reduction may take place. We could easily see production reduced and still see larger ending stocks than this year. We also need to remember that production is only one side of the story on this report and changes are likely to the usage side as well. The main ones may be reductions to old crop exports and ethanol manufacturing. Both of these are expected to decline from current estimates. Trade will closely watch tonight’s ratings report to see if we see another decline in condition. While this is not uncommon at this stage of the crop cycle, the question is if ratings are slipping from poorer crop quality or simply because the crops are maturing. These rating will quickly take a back seat to actual field numbers though as harvest activity will ramp in in the next week.

Highlights
* CFAP2 details this week
* US trade deficit at 12 month high
* US economy showing instability
* US dollar rebounds
* Cold temperatures for much of Corn Belt this week
* Basis starting to reflect harvest activity
* Harvest to pick up this week
* Economists question post-election subsidies
* FSA acreage updates this Friday
* WASDE report on Friday at 11:00 AM CT

Corn
* China buying corn for next spring
* Crop ratings 2-3% lower tonight
* Concerns rising over crop quality
* Ethanol demand has stalled
* Yield estimates rising
 
Soybeans
* Crop rating steady tonight
* Brazil production forecasts rising
* US yield estimate holding near 52 bpa
* Soy oil demand supporting entire complex
* Vessel export line up hits 5 year high
 
Wheat
* China shopping for imports
* US overpriced in global market
* US harvest pressure to lift
* Argentina continues to lower crop estimate
* Wheat basis starting to firm
 
Livestock
* Doubts rise over US/Argentine hog production
* Brazil pork exports nearly 2x year ago 
* Brazil beef exports rising
* US pork cheapest in global market
* Trade monitoring consumer demand

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