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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Wednesday, September 09, 2020
As expected, the condition rating of the US corn and soybean crops declined last week. A reported 61% of the US corn crop and 65% of the soybean crop is now rated Good to Excellent. These are both down 1% but declines are actually less than was expected. We will start to see increased positioning ahead of Friday’s WASDE report today. Ahead of this we have seen several private updates to balance sheets and yields, with numbers all over. One thing that is consistent is that no forecaster is predicting larger yields than where were seen in August. The most changes are expected to corn where yield is expected to be roughly 2 bushels per acre less than a month ago. Soybean yield is expected to be closer to what was released in August, but still down about 1 bushel per acre. The real question is what these alterations will have on ending stocks. Even with reduced yields the United States will still produce more than enough corn and soybeans to satisfy demand this coming year and leave ample ending stocks. It is quite likely we will still see a carryout on corn with reduced production as well. This may limit any reaction to the data, even if it appears to be bullish from a production point of view. 

Highlights
* Russia holds total grain production at 122.5 mmt
* Profit taking possible ahead of Friday
* Sharp rebound in US dollar
* Equity market losses generate correction fears
* Typhon threatens Chinese crops
* Economic tensions build between US and China
* Rains move through Argentina
* Chinese food supply questioned
* Global energy product demand down
* WASDE report on Friday at 11:00 AM CT

Corn
* Corn 61% Good/Excellent; -1%
* Corn 25% mature, 19% is average
* Cheap corn displaces feed wheat 
* China corn imports to surpass quota
* Brazil exports remain slow to build
 
Soybeans
* Soybean rating -1% to 65% G/E
* 20% of soybeans have dropped leaves, 7% year ago
* Record crush pace to continue
* China expected to buy another 8 mmt this year
* China needs now covered through December
 
Wheat
* Spring wheat 82% harvested
* Wheat over-priced as feed grain
* Russia may limit exports
* US terminal stocks being questioned
* Dry weather may delay winter seedings
 
Livestock
* Cash values under pressure
* Cattle slaughter remains high 
* Pork values on the rise
* Consumer demand shifts to pork, poultry
* Economy weighs on all demand

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