E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Friday, September 11, 2020
Trade will finally receive the long-awaited September WASDE report today. To recap, this is the first of the year to contain field collected data and generates more interest than many. All in all, trade is expecting high production numbers compared to historical trends. The average corn yield estimate is 178.3 bpa and soybeans at 51.8 bpa. Ending stocks are pegged at 2.45 billion bu on new crop corn and soybeans are at 465 mbu. While down from August, these are still adequate reserves. Once this data is released, trade will revert to monitoring global weather forecasts for daily price direction, especially with the start of the Brazilian soybean planting season. The state of Parana is expected to start seeding soybeans today with other states to follow suit over the next few weeks. Brazil remains dry, but this is actually a benefit for the planting season at this stage. We will also start to see more interest on the US harvest as fieldwork will start to increase in the next week. Some early harvest has already been seen, but not enough to generate a realistic idea of yield potential. As this changes we will see less interest on crop reports and more on the actual numbers. Not only will this impact the futures market, but the cash side as well. 

* WASDE data at 11:00 AM CT today
* FSA will update acreage as well
* Seasonals indicate lower values
* Concerns rising that commodities are over-valued
* US trade deficit largest since July 2008
* Low tech stocks impact equity market
* Fears rise over second Covid wave this fall
* Buyers pushing for quick ship bushels
* Harvest activity rising
* High soybean movement expected this fall

* Average corn yield estimate 178.3 bpa
* Harvested acres estimated 83.5 million
* Production estimated at 14.9 billion bu
* 19/20 carryout 2.23 bbu
* 20/21 carryout 2.45 bbu
* Average Yield est 51.8 bpa
* Harvested acres 82.9 million
* Production est 4.3 bbu
* 19/20 carryover est 600 mbu
* 20/21 ending stocks 465 mbu
* 20/21 ending stocks est 924 mbu
* 19/20 world carryout est 300 mmt
* 20/21 world ending stocks est 315.8 mmt
* Record Australian crop included in these est
* Russia again selling wheat
* ASF detected in Germany
* US hog weights -4.8 pounds from year ago
* China to auction 10,000 mt pork today
* Yearly pork auctions at 540,000 mt
* China will also auction beef

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.