E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Monday, September 14, 2020
The majority of today’s session will likely be spent realigning futures positions to match the WASDE supply and demand numbers from last Friday. The most talked about was and will be the sizable reduction to new crop soybean ending stocks from 610 million bu in August to the current 450 mbu level. This is also a 115 mbu reduction from old crop to new crop. Corn changes were less drastic, and mostly in line with trade expectations. Corn yield and production were both down from August but in line with trade estimates. Corn carryout is still projected at a comfortable 2.5 billion bu this year though, and while down from earlier projections, is still 250 mbu more than last year’s carryout. Trade will show interest in tonight’s crop condition report, but not as much as in recent weeks. The crops are maturing, and more interest is on actual yield numbers that will soon be seen. The next weekly number that will get interest is likely to be the winter wheat planting progress for an indication of how many acres of that crop may be seeded this year. Early indications are winter wheat acres will be up given current returns compared to other crops. 

* WASDE data supports trade
* Stats Canada production data today
* US harvest activity to increase this week
* Lower consumer confidence becoming an issue
* Economists closely monitoring holiday sales activity
* Planting advancing in Brazil
* Dry soils seen as a benefit for now
* US ethanol demand 10% under year ago
* Brazil to extend tariff-free imports for 90 days
* Trade now focused on September 30th data

* Average corn yield 178.5 bpa
* Crop size 14.9 bbu
* Global ending stocks 306.8 mmt
* 19/20 carryout 2.25 bbu
* 20/21 carryout 2.5 bbu
* Average Yield 51.9 bpa
* Crop size 4.31 bbu
* Global ending stocks 93.6 mmt
* 19/20 carryover 575 mbu
* 20/21 ending stocks 460 mbu
* 20/21 ending stocks est 925 mbu
* 19/20 world carryout 299.8 mmt
* 20/21 world ending stocks 319.4 mmt
* Record Australian crop 
* More production data in Sep 30th reports
* US 20/21 beef production 3.14 billion pounds
* US beef production +244 million pounds from 2019/20
* US 20/21 pork production 7.65 billion pounds
* Pork production +103 million pounds from 19/20
* Average values at $111.75 on live cattle, $44.25 on hogs

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.