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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Thursday, September 24, 2020
While it seems early, we are starting to see the market position itself for the upcoming US election. Traders tend to shore up positions ahead of this event due to the possibility of a new administration. This can bring significant changes to foreign policy and become a factor in commodity demand. It is not uncommon to see trade pacts made and dissolved when a new President takes office. While the election is more than a month away and a new administration would not take office until early January, the market is going to start preparations now. Any potential change in a US President can also cause the value of the US dollar to fluctuate. We have already seen wide swings in the US dollar in recent months and the possibility of a new President will only add to volatility. At the same time, if President Trump wins re-election it may have limited impact on the markets as trade feels more comfortable with knowing current trade policy. The greatest unknown in the political front has been and will continue to be relations with China. For today’s session, trade will focus on harvest weather outlooks and progress and the weekly export sales totals.  

Highlights
* Dredging taking place on Lower Mississippi River
* Dredging to allow for deeper draft on barges
* Planting slows in Brazil due to dry soils
* Quick ship basis offers shrinking
* Political developments impacting trade
* US dollar firms
* US ethanol margins improve
* Harvest forecast remains favorable
* Additional Covid stimulus uncertain
* Covid still impacting commodity demand

Corn
* Rapid Delta harvest limits storm damage
* China corn purchases up 43% on the year
* Ukraine corn exports -4% year to year
* Corn use in feed rations rising
* Argentine farmers may shift soy acres to corn
 
Soybeans
* Brazil to see record expansion this year
* Drought to reduce Argentine plantings
* Canola harvest pressure in Canada
* Global oilseed market under pressure
* Argentine crush -20% in August
 
Wheat
* Russia undercuts global bids
* Russian sales ramping up
* Winter wheat acres to rise
* US harvest pressure lifting
* Wheat over-valued vs. corn
 
Livestock
* Quarterly hog and pig report today
* Hog numbers expected at 100% of year ago
* Cattle on feed report tomorrow
* Sep 1st on feed 103.5% last year
* August placements 106%, marketings 96.7%

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.