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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Tuesday, September 29, 2020
A fair amount of harvest took place in the US last week. Corn is now 15% harvested and soybeans are at 20% harvested. Given current weather forecasts these numbers should make sizable advances next week, too. As harvest advances we are starting to see the accompanying basis volatility build as well. Basis has started to soften in areas where new crop bushels are becoming available which is not uncommon. We have seen elevated demand in recent months though, mainly from the export market, and this is expected to prevent basis from widening as much as we have seen in recent years. Shrinking production estimates are also keeping buyers interested in covering needs sooner than later. If farmers continue to receive subsidy payments it may become even harder to secure coverage and buyers want to try and prevent this if possible. Fund positioning will dominate today’s session. For one this will be in final preparation of tomorrow’s quarterly stocks and small grains report. This will in effect give us our old crop ending stocks totals on corn and soybeans. Tomorrow also marks the end of the month and quarter so to see fund traders adjust positions is not surprising, especially if they have profits that can be taken. 

Highlights
* Elevated positioning for USDA reports
* Month, quarter end positioning as well
* Harvest pressure builds
* “Better than expected” yields being reported
* Southern US turning dry
* Rains slow to develop in Brazil
* Russian production to keep rising
* US dollar volatility builds
* China to avoid imports from high-Covid countries
* China absent from US flash sales

Corn
* Corn is 75% mature, 65% is average
* Corn is 15% harvested, 16% is normal
* US corn sales record 890 mbu
* US export sales +529 mbu from last year
* China corn bookings total 386 mbu
 
Soybeans
* 74% of soybeans dropping leaves
* Crop is 20% harvested
* US export sales 860 mbu above last year
* China accounts for 54% of demand
* Known China purchases at 707 mbu 
 
Wheat
* Winter wheat 35% planted
* Winter wheat 10% emerged
* Russian planting equal to last year
* Ukraine planting remains slow
* French harvest builds global stocks even further
 
Livestock
* China goal to be 95% self-reliant on pork production
* China also wants to raise 85% of its beef needs 
* Boxed beef continues to slide
* German ASF cases rise
* All ASF in Germany in wild hogs

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.