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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Friday, October 02, 2020
Futures were lower overnight as losses developed in all markets following new President Trump has contracted Covid-19. There is little doubt developments to this and its potential impact on the Presidential Election process will be factors for the next several weeks. Now that trade has had time to digest the quarterly stocks data, attention will return to harvest activity and planting in South America. This will again make weather a key factor in price discovery. For the United States conditions are mostly favorable for the harvest to progress. We will also start to see more interest on post-harvest weather to see how much fall tillage is completed. Typically, the more fall fieldwork that can be completed the more corn acres we tend to see. In South America most interest will be on the start of the rainy season and if enough precipitation is received to recharge dry soils. The is especially the case for Brazil where soybean planting has been slightly delayed until rains are received. While this does not necessarily mean the country will see yield impacted, it may alter the time when new crop soybeans are available for export and end up benefiting US demand. The most interest in South America remains on Argentina where the La Nina influenced drought continues and reports of lost production are increasing. We are also hearing more reports of acres shifting from soybeans to corn which could be a market factor if enough transition. 

Highlights
* President Trump tests positive for Covid 19
* Global Covid cases rising
* Paris considering another lock-down to prevent spread
* US exports rising
* Analysts questioning US stocks data collection process
* Trade now looking forward to Oct WASDE next Friday
* US farmers sales slow on corn, higher on soybeans
* Starting to hear logistic issues in WCB
* Global weather remains mixed
* China Phase 1 purchases 33% of total
* Freeze damage possible in Argentina this weekend

Corn
* US marketing year loadings 110 mbu
* Loadings +79% from year ago
* Global buyers stepping up coverage
* Rains in Argentina encourage plantings
* So Africa lowers crop estimate
 
Soybeans
* Marketing year loadings total 178 mbu
* China rejects soy oil due to GMO content
* Movement weighs on basis
* Brazil plantings slow but picking up speed
* Argentina to temporarily suspend export tax 
 
Wheat
* Export loadings +8.2% from last year
* Feed wheat a premium to corn
* Russian drought remains an issue
* Buyers continue to stockpile reserves
* Argentina to see freeze this weekend
 
Livestock
* More ASF found in Germany
* Area of ASF cases growing 
* Weekly beef sales 9 week high at 24,681 mt
* Weekly pork sales +5% week ago at 39,544 mt 
* Mexico largest pork buyer at 45% of total  

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