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E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

 
Friday, October 09, 2020
The big story in today’s session will likely be the release of the monthly balance sheets. On the production side trade is expecting crop sizes of 14.8 billion bu on corn and 4.3 billion bu on soybeans which are similar to the numbers that were released in September. The unknown in this may be acres as analysts are expecting to see reductions from last month. This could give us smaller crops even with steady yields, but also larger crops with unchanged yields if no changes are made. The biggest changes are expected to be to new crop ending stocks given the surprises in the September stocks report. This is likely where the majority of trade attention will be on the open, mainly on soybeans. Once this data is released trade will quickly return to daily harvest reports for price discovery. We will also continue to monitor daily sales to see if China continues to make purchases to satisfy its Phase 1 agreement. This is especially a factor now that China has enough bushels secured to get to the next Brazilian crop and is buying for storage according to government sources. Trade will also continue to monitor South American weather to see if rains alleviate dry soils, especially in Brazil now that soybean planting is underway. 

Highlights
* WASDE report at 11:00 AM CT 
* Most attention on soy complex
* Reductions to harvested acres possible
* Hurricane Delta to make landfall today
* Estimated 200 mbu of soybeans in Delta’s path
* Brazil farmers move ahead with planting
* Driest start to Brazil planting in 10 years
* USDA attaché in Brazil sees record crops
* US ethanol sales to Canada a 3-year high
* Rains forecast for dry areas of Black sea

Corn
* Corn yield estimate 177.9 bpa
* Crop size estimated at 14.8 bbu
* Ending stocks est 2.12 bbu 
* Ending stocks -383 mbu from Sep
* Global ending stocks est 299.6 mmt
 
Soybeans
* Yield est 51.7 bpa
* Crop size estimated at 4.3 bbu
* Ending stocks 363 mbu
* Ending stocks -97 mbu from Sep
* World carryout est 91.2 mmt
 
Wheat
* US ending stocks 890 mbu
* Ending stocks -35 mbu from Sep
* Global carryout est 317.2 mmt
* US Plains see building drought
* Argentina to plant GMO wheat
 
Livestock
* Weekly beef sales 20,691 mt
* Beef sales for 2021 listed at 2,200 mt
* Yearly beef sales +4%
* Weekly pork sales at 60,195 mt
* China books 48% of weekly pork sales

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.