E-Visor Reports: Market Watch

Tuesday, January 12, 2021
Trade will finally receive the long-awaited January supply and demand numbers today. All interest is on the soy complex, both domestically and globally. Trade is expecting to see domestic soybean reserves decrease to their tightest level in several years. The global supply is also anticipated to decline to its lowest volume in 18 years. The question is how much of a decrease we see in ending stocks, as trade is likely to disregard a US soybean carryout above 150 million bu. We will also see trade focus on the US corn balance sheets as some analysts feel ending stocks on that grain will tighten considerably this year from their current 1.7 billion bu estimate. A few models have this number shrinking to 1.3 bbu which would warrant the start of price rationing. We will also receive the final production numbers on the 2020 crops and December 1st commodity inventory reports. When it comes to ending stocks wheat is likely along for the ride today. The most interest on wheat will come from the acreage side as we will see the 2021 winter wheat planting estimates released today. Once this data is released trade will quickly revert to South American crop reports and export demand for price discovery. 

* More US ethanol plants halt operations
* SAM crop ratings decline
* Heavier country sales ahead of WASDE
* Continue to hear rumors of Chinese buying
* US dollar rebounds, remains historically weak
* Drought persists in US south
* Funds hold sizable longs
* Processor margins shrinking
* All interest on Jan WASDE report at 11:00 AM CT
* Dec 1st stocks, Winter Wheat plantings also to be released 

* Average US yield est 175.3 bpa 
* Crop size est 14.47 bbu
* Ending stocks projected at 1.6 bbu
* Global carryout at 283.5 mmt
* Dec 1st stocks estimated at 11.95 bbu
* US yield est 50.5 bpa
* Crop size est 4.16 bbu
* Ending stocks estimated at 139 mbu
* Global carryout projected at 82.66 mmt
* Dec 1st stocks at 2.92 bbu
* US ending stocks 859 mbu
* Global stocks at 315.4 mmt
* Dec 1st stocks at 1.7 bbu
* Winter wheat acres est 31.53 million
* Global production remains adequate
* Germany continues to find ASF
* Total German cases now at 480
* Chinese hog values -15% 
* Higher pork supply in China
* Consumer demand weighs on global markets

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by AgriVisor, LLC. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.  This is not independent research and is provided as a service.  As such, this is considered a solicitation.